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Pronostic pour les élections générales britanniques du 7 mai 2015

7 mai 2015

Ayant fait ce pronostic pour un forum anglophone de joyeux pséphologues amateurs, je la reproduis dans la langue de Shakespeare, ce qui est plutôt adapté à l’objet.

Vote shares (GB only)

Conservatives – 34.5%
Labour – 33.5%
UKIP – 11.8%
Liberal Democrats – 10.5%
Greens – 3.2%
SNP/Plaid Cymru – 4.5%
Other (incl. NI) – 2%

Basically, Tories and Labour sitting on their poll numbers, slight underperformance for Ukip due to tactical voting for the Tories, which Farage kind of opened the door to, compensated with by a slight overperformance from the LibDems, due to loan votes by the Tories in a number of places, not necessarily enough to translat into seats though. I’ve always believed that the Greens were overpolled too, to my dismay. SNP should perform a bit under the radar comparing to their stratospheric polling level.

Conservatives – 280
Labour – 274
Liberal Democrats – 23
UKIP – 1
Greens – 1
SNP – 48
Plaid – 3
Respect (Galloway) – 1
Other – 19 (DUP – 9, Sinn Féin – 5, SDLP – 3, Independent [Hermon] – 1, Speaker – 1)

As a consequence, Tories in first, but barely. Expect whining about legitimacy. Labour doing good. LibDems being even more of a joke than they already are, but Clegg saved by loan votes. Ukip only returning one MP, not necessarily Farage, thinking more of Reckless. See SNP below. Greens and Plaid sticking with what they have. To be honest, I copied the « Other », as in Northern Ireland, from someone else.

Likely Government – Labour minority, absence of opposition by SNP allowing the Queen’s Speech to pass.

Scotland – Vote share and seats
SNP – 44.5%, 48 seats
Labour – 28%, 8 seats
Conservative – 16%, 2 seats (along the border I guess)
Liberal Democrats – 6%, 1 seat (Orkney and Shetland)
UKIP – 2.5%, 0 seats
Greens – 1.5%, 0 seats
Others – 1.5%, 0 seats

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